Posts Tagged ‘charles r. morris’

History lesson: Recessions are modern

8 May 2010

Interesting just in its own right, this paragraph from Paul Krugman:

“… the 19th-century economy had much more flexible prices and wages than later came to be the case — not, primarily, because of different institutions, but because it was still largely an economy of small, self-employed farmers. More than half of US workers were in agriculture up until the 1880s. Peter Temin has told me — I can’t find it in a quick search — that the United States didn’t start having modern recessions, with large declines in real GDP, until the Panic of 1873; Britain started having them much earlier, because it became an industrial economy earlier.”

Or possibly not even until the Panic of 1893, which at the time was known as the Great Depression.  Some economic history research that I have not seen, but which is cited confidently in this compelling column by Charles R. Morris, concludes that the 1870s contraction was actually quite mild.

Which is not to see that genuine and widely felt “hard times” never occurred in our pre-industrial, pre-1870 economy.  Financial panics and deflations were common, and any big drop in farm price surely hurt the real incomes of many farmers, as long as their prices fell more than other prices and farmers had nominally denominated debts.  Many economic historians have even said that a “depression” in the early 1770s helped set the stage for the American Revolution.  But it does seem we need to have a better understanding of what those early “hard times” were like for the people who experienced them.