Posts Tagged ‘lou reed’

Bottoming out?

17 June 2009

I’ve been skeptical all along.  So have Brad DeLong and Paul Krugman. It’s hard to say we’ve hit bottom when industrial production continues to fall, by 1.1% in May and by 13.4% over the past year, the worst 12-month showing since 1946.  Industrial capacity utilization is at a record-low 68.3%.  (The capacity utilization data go back to 1948.)

But it does appear that some economic indicators, like employment, are at least declining at a slower rate, so “bottoming out,” as opposed to “has already bottomed out,” may be appropriate.  The question is how long it’ll take for the economy to start growing again, as opposed to staying at a low level.  James Kwak of The Baseline Scenario offers a good rundown of the “green shoots” debate here.

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