Posts Tagged ‘ron brown’

Good news with a big grain of salt

18 June 2009

actual grain of salt

The Economist looks at the decline in jobless claims over the past four weeks and declares the U.S. recession to have “cleared the hump” (equivalent to “bottomed out,” from a “been down so long it looks like up to me” perspective).  But they predict a less-than-robust recovery:

‘It’s the return to the jobless recovery. And what that means for the population groups most affected—blue collar workers, those with less education, and so on—is that for years to come, work will be difficult to find and wages will lag. The recession will not end for everyone at the same time. Millions of workers will continue to struggle years after output numbers get out of the red.’

(h/t: Vanessa Cruz)

A commenter suggests that the decline in jobless claims may just mean that a lot of people’s unemployment insurance ran out, which, given the millions of long-term unemployed, is plausible.

Some stronger signs that recovery is on the horizon are in the just-released Index of Leading Economic Indicators, by the Conference Board.  The index looks at ten different economic data series (including unemployment claims) which tend to move in the same direction as the overall economy but a few months earlier.  Seven of those indicators were up in May; three were down.  Overall, the index grew 1.2%, its second monthly gain in a row and its largest gain since March 2004.